Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96ffe09547f9a145f662c4593071f1205d25a3c9089bec4a74b7d9245213b112
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 45c | 412.31$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 389.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed Yes | 32c | 250.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 236$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…0a58backed Yes | 32c | 220$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 216.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 73c | 202.33$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 196.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 59c | 194.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 185.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed No | 65c | 153.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 116.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 106.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 105.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 99.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 62c | 96.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 93.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…6f64backed Yes | 44c | 90.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 84.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 83.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 63c | 82.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 62c | 81.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 78.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 52c | 72.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 79c | 61.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 60.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 57.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…0a22backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 49.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 48.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 55c | 44.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 44.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 43.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…716bbacked Yes | 44c | 42.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 39.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 39.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 39.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 34.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 31.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 38c | 29.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 27.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 45c | 27.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…c419backed Yes | 39c | 25.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…3536backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 61c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 20.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 20.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.