Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5277930d7b440a690ec8002dae7cbd678d3a0eeb2745cf76971655048a839c67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Potapovaof Kostyuk, Potapova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Potapova | 49c | 10,445$5,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,326.98 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed Kostyuk | 51c | 8,400$4,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,284 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | -12.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Potapova | 49c | 6,067$2,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.9 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Kostyuk | 51c | 3,516$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,804.52 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Kostyuk | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Kostyuk | 50c | 1,771$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.63 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Kostyuk | 51c | 1,579$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.1 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Kostyuk | 51c | 1,025$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 625 | 45.4%284 W · 341 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Potapova | 49c | 1,000$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.44 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…cd53backed Kostyuk | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Potapova | 42c | 800$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.81 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…5fb9backed Kostyuk | 50c | 792$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Kostyuk | 52c | 563.46$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Potapova | 49c | 520.5$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.32 | 248 | 56.9%141 W · 107 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Potapova | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Potapova | 54c | 480.59$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Potapova | 49c | 438.78$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.78 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…0bccbacked Kostyuk | 52c | 421.43$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Kostyuk | 50c | 399.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Kostyuk | 50c | 348.45$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.14 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…d211backed Kostyuk | 52c | 329.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Potapova | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.53 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Kostyuk | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Potapova | 50c | 299.99$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Potapova | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Potapova | 48c | 299.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Kostyuk | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Potapova | 49c | 253.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.28 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Potapova | 32c | 250$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Potapova | 48c | 228.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…012ebacked Potapova | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Kostyuk | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 247 | 47.4%117 W · 130 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Potapova | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f2…e0c9backed Kostyuk | 50c | 196.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Potapova | 50c | 193.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Potapova | 50c | 168.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Kostyuk | 51c | 158.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Kostyuk | 52c | 129.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Potapova | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Kostyuk | 70c | 115.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…52adbacked Potapova | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…eb10backed Potapova | 59c | 102.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Potapova | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 211 | 49.8%105 W · 106 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Kostyuk | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Kostyuk | 51c | 95.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…729cbacked Potapova | 73c | 87.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Potapova | 67c | 86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Potapova | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Kostyuk | 51c | 70.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Potapova | 48c | 66.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Potapova | 53c | 56.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 267 | 59.6%159 W · 108 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Potapova | 69c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Potapova | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Potapova | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…12e2backed Potapova | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Potapova | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Kostyuk | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…1958backed Kostyuk | 70c | 39.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Potapova | 29c | 34.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Kostyuk | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Kostyuk | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Potapova | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Potapova | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed Kostyuk | 72c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Potapova | 69c | 25.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…2ab1backed Kostyuk | 51c | 24.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…a585backed Kostyuk | 51c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dc…c980backed Kostyuk | 72c | 20.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 70 | 75.7%53 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Potapova | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked Potapova | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5)this page
- Kostyuk vs. Potapova: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia PotapovaMarta Kostyuk won
- Marta Kostyuk vs. Anastasia Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs PotapovaKostyuk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.