TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,075 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Under46c2,412$1,114 inLost-$1,114.218,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over58c1,200$698 inWon+$502.425,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under33c1,057$348 inLost-$348.0712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc843…2a42backed Under1c1,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked Over42c595.24$250 inWon+$345.2411848.3%57 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over65c576.47$373 inWon+$203.872,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed Over57c531.32$302 inWon+$228.8710750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over65c345.85$224 inWon+$121.3910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over62c193$119 inWon+$73.976,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under56c153.74$86 inLost-$85.5811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over70c127.33$89 inWon+$38.28,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Under30c127.33$38 inLost-$38.24235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over80c104.13$83 inWon+$20.945,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under32c91$29 inLost-$29.124,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Over65c68.6$44 inWon+$24.232,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Under24c68.06$16 inLost-$16.1841836.4%152 W · 266 L-31.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb70…52c0backed Under63c63.49$40 inLost-$4017462.6%109 W · 65 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over70c54.33$38 inWon+$16.214,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3603…22edbacked Over59c50$30 inWon+$20.551849.4%256 W · 262 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over37c36.75$13 inWon+$23.263,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over55c35$19 inWon+$15.8877353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1980…3340backed Over69c34.54$24 inWon+$10.7132450.9%165 W · 159 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over77c28.18$22 inWon+$6.459,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Over68c21.04$14 inWon+$6.731,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Over71c16$11 inWon+$4.6416274.1%120 W · 42 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.