MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b38ed29a400da5b7cd191318b62ca49aa5e677b642632003807db4706774e33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 2,520$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.8 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 2,424$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 2,079$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 2,041$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 623.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 512.51$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 422.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.89 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9c…877fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 404.21$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 245$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Chicago Cubs | 20c | 245$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 227.12$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.61 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 199.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Chicago Cubs | 70c | 141.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 124$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Chicago Cubs | 26c | 121.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 78.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Chicago Cubs | 20c | 68.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 59.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 58.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 54.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 52.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 34.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 22.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.