MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39bca738f9fa7e8a68b608131d6b41125a020a2510ecc69e539472806d65c53a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 73c | 4,758$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 4,400$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 4,185$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 4,104$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.6 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 2,218$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 1,344$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 1,126$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.04 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 1,100$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 1,064$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 938.1$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.38 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 739.97$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.19 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 679.07$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 582.9$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.65 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 440.09$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 23c | 326$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 197.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 175.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 169$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 144.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 63.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…0afabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 55.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 44.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 36.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12de…bb0fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…d85fbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago Cubs | 73c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.