TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,394
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,460

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,394 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under27c5,350$1,429 inLost-$1,428.7111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over73c5,026$3,687 inWon+$1,339.7710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Over73c2,782$2,044 inWon+$738.3330963.1%195 W · 114 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over73c2,031$1,493 inWon+$538.325,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under27c1,531$418 inLost-$417.768,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Under26c1,204$313 inLost-$313.0836440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Under50c839.84$423 inLost-$422.921241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under19c766.6$148 inLost-$147.578,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under29c700.19$201 inLost-$201.0712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Under38c551.83$209 inLost-$209.296354%34 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf474…2775backed Over66c455.74$301 inWon+$154.742524%6 W · 19 L-6.9wins-0.28per pick52cpaid-61.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x115e…5019backed Over58c384.97$225 inWon+$160.049553.7%51 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over64c322.97$207 inWon+$115.914,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under32c316.63$102 inLost-$101.523,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9947…925dbacked Over70c276.93$195 inWon+$81.932128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-55.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa13b…60c0backed Over80c125$100 inWon+$252969%20 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under18c120$22 inLost-$21.61,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under19c115.88$22 inLost-$22.023,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under19c70.79$13 inLost-$13.4567444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Under19c54.38$10 inLost-$10.3359749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Under27c47.56$13 inLost-$12.871,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under36c30$11 inLost-$10.76,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over75c25.13$19 inWon+$6.2869447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over66c16.88$11 inWon+$5.7177353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.