MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6dea11866f935ce4b1c399881b99321d9697ad411943ddd3fd0a1f23d4b0fde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 9,099$5,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,621.51 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 43c | 8,622$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,914.49 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 1c | 7,831$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 7,295$2,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,713 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 3,966$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.88 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a6…a6d3backed Under | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 1,975$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.66 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 25c | 1,199$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.52 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 986.92$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.64 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c6…c063backed Over | 43c | 922.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 845.08$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.63 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 42c | 741.4$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 57c | 638$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.66 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 45c | 609.79$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.75 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 50c | 516$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 504.9$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.96 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 481 | 45.3%218 W · 263 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 42c | 398.93$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.38 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 26c | 381$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.53 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 267.38$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 259.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.37 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 27c | 194.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3931…734ebacked Under | 16c | 185.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 61c | 148.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Under | 69c | 122.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Under | 73c | 103.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 41c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 57c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 64c | 89.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…925dbacked Under | 61c | 84.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 58c | 62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…e101backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 50.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Under | 68c | 48.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 57c | 40.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 36c | 36.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 326 | 56.7%185 W · 141 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Over | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 58c | 29.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Over | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 23.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 63c | 22.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda05…9e0cbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 75c | 19.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh PiratesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.