MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52ca92dcc7fee1ad33fc0eb89b5b09755b3ae6bfea4bfe162cbbdea09d77592a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 5,673$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.56 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 4,103$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.28 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.5 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 1,368$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 1,353$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.74 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 1,029$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.91 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Colorado Rockies | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 900.56$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.31 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 532.53$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.04 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 518.82$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.85 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Colorado Rockies | 18c | 393.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 346.64$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.72 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 248$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 230$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 197.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 154$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 119.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 111.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 79.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Colorado Rockies | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 72.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 59.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…3884backed Colorado Rockies | 34c | 59.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Colorado Rockies | 23c | 50.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3c…8290backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 39.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 38.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…d241backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 19.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.