MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ad24cf254e729871ca3f2a5e9a0aa6f85638c132bd1d637df748baa342f7138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 56c | 81,766$45,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,470.12 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 24,502$10,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,721.16 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 21,889$9,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,257.63 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 6,770$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,731.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 47c | 5,319$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.15 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 4,054$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.7 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 3,906$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,148.49 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 3,120$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 2,534$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 44c | 2,030$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.31 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 1,928$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 1,737$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.68 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 1,230$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 1,190$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.74 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 45c | 768$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 693$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.22 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 585$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 55c | 473.75$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.44 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 459.75$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 54c | 389.52$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.34 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 331.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 242.66$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8b…f9f5backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 199$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 173.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 16c | 110.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…cf7cbacked Over | 44c | 67.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 45c | 67.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 46c | 63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 73c | 35.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 96 | 62.5%60 W · 36 L | +11.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8d…d241backed Over | 45c | 23.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +40%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 22.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Under | 55c | 18.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 19.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.