Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52cf6d362e7ce829d0cf01a8d6d11246fafefc14d9b25681bc3341e1bfd4327d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 49c | 1,519$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.62 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 54c | 456.46$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.87 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 355$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 43c | 330.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.69 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 51c | 305$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.25 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 27c | 280$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 40c | 277.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 51c | 207.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 141.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 139.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 53c | 132.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 50c | 131$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 116.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x257a…5d9bbacked Yes | 14c | 92.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 79.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 60c | 72.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 52c | 66.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 45c | 50.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 62c | 35.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 31c | 32.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 30.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…352cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 61c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.