Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af9941836e40963015e720124a6d3cca2e5cfe9d5dd8fb8d4f19110b5719c9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 55c | 4,046$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.51 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 1,368$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.4 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 33c | 730$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 674.99$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.83 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 45c | 560$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 319.61$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 290.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 203.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 40c | 201.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e65…9d5fbacked Yes | 44c | 195.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 65c | 154.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 47c | 121.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 116.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…1d63backed Yes | 45c | 78.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…c110backed Yes | 45c | 74.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 46c | 60.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 60.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 56.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 34c | 50.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 45c | 44.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 35c | 42.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 34c | 39.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…491dbacked No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 36.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 30.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…2e9ebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 48c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 46c | 24.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcf…76e8backed No | 50c | 22.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 53c | 21.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…eac3backed No | 51c | 20.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 4?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 4?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.