Movies · resolved market
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d88227b89a5d8839c3d3bb4189eebcfcbf4502847a65a87330a7d8c14eb6ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 9c | 1,659$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.1 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 16c | 1,596$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.02 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 3c | 1,205$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 75c | 854.74$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.19 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 709.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 29c | 700$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 338.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 73c | 277.92$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 35c | 156.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…2a78backed Yes | 21c | 92.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 61.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 29c | 52.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 33c | 44.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 80c | 29.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?this page
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m and 11.5m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 13.5m?Yes won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 13.5m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.