Movies · resolved market
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 13.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b32201d8c0b670423e560286fa58abf7161d5289849eadffb4552f4cb498584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4377…1764backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 6c | 1,638$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 19c | 675.54$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.8 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 64c | 630.39$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.81 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 8c | 567.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed No | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 27c | 380.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed No | 30c | 369.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 10c | 326.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 277$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 71c | 234.98$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 20c | 210.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 66c | 191$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 187.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 144.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 67c | 119.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 71c | 116.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 26c | 101.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 52c | 76.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 61.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 61.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 25c | 45.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 28.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 47c | 23.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 76c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 13.5m?this page
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m and 11.5m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 13.5m?No won
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 10.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.