MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5349cd972db368b2ba5bc82afd3ad3e916579e01e05343d3d37b7ec0033a6450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 7,659$4,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,757.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…3269backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 5,920$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.96 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 467.77$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 317.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 299.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 237.96$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 166$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 138$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 115$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 80c | 93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 92.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 51.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…4a34backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 44.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 38.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.