MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13fc42f68463c1f977aa7e29b176c6808ee89f1d182baafff9fa1d4e9547224c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 19,226$5,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,092.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 13,610$10,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,996.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…b9e3backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 7,585$2,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,806.45 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 4,196$2,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.89 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 69c | 2,600$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.05 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 1,720$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 1,528$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.9 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 22c | 1,526$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 1,353$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.95 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 1,024$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 975$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 70c | 916.24$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 903.53$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 572.23$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.92 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…f9d1backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 527.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 495.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 476$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 443.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 273.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 271.51$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 211.93$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 195.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 185$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 178$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 161.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 157.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 140.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 102.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Philadelphia Phillies | 67c | 98.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3232…c3fabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 93.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 90.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 57.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 43.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Philadelphia Phillies | 78c | 32.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 31.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 29.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 65c | 24.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 21.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 17.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.