MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c6b77dd26e4b36d90ea32e4340e408ff81ba6b9ed7f6d73f399ba577b6d24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 68c | 33,637$22,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,763.94 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 32c | 17,859$5,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,718.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 4,639$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 2,110$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 29c | 2,090$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.33 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 54c | 1,742$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.91 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 1,664$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Over | 56c | 1,527$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.11 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 36c | 1,453$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 54c | 1,394$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.98 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 1,266$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.28 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.16 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 1,094$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 54c | 1,045$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.42 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 7c | 957.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 767.7$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 726.09$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 585$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 54c | 564.17$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.65 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 54c | 432.34$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.97 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 385.6$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Over | 55c | 357.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 59c | 350.55$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 31c | 322.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 256$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 54c | 244.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over | 55c | 201.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 53c | 199$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 55c | 179.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 33c | 128.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 47c | 127.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 113.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 54c | 103$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…0bfebacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 60c | 83.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 37c | 68.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…2b4fbacked Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Over | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 47c | 58.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 54c | 45.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 57c | 42.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 47c | 42.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 33.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Over | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 46c | 26.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 46c | 24.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 61c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8158…648ebacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.