TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,666
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,666 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ad4…6866backed No51c5,200$2,652 inLost-$2,65215849.4%78 W · 80 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Yes49c5,192$2,544 inWon+$2,647.773,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No46c431.99$198 inLost-$197.838,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No10c380.1$38 inLost-$38.0126762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No10c308$31 inLost-$30.877752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes54c259.77$141 inWon+$118.63,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked No10c225.5$23 inLost-$22.551,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes54c172.22$93 inWon+$79.2255758%323 W · 234 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes51c155$79 inWon+$76.22,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed No55c132.75$74 inLost-$73.594,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed Yes49c98.04$48 inWon+$509655.2%53 W · 43 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed No51c98.04$50 inLost-$5011743.6%51 W · 66 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed No49c79.61$39 inLost-$39.011,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Yes44c63.03$28 inWon+$35.361352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c6a…4f83backed Yes51c40.67$21 inWon+$19.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda46…d7b5backed Yes51c40.67$21 inWon+$19.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b94…5226backed Yes51c40.67$21 inWon+$19.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a0…83aebacked No51c40.67$21 inLost-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b85…8780backed No51c40.67$21 inLost-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42bd…3082backed Yes51c40.67$21 inWon+$19.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61cf…cfb2backed Yes51c40.67$21 inWon+$19.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0d…c5dfbacked No51c40.67$21 inLost-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…4792backed No51c40.67$21 inLost-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f81…3217backed No51c40.67$21 inLost-$20.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked No50c25$13 inLost-$12.567444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33a5…3da0backed Yes51c21.72$11 inWon+$10.647349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.