TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump nominate John Ratcliffe for Attorney General?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,727 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c5,164$10 inLost-$10.332400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No79c2,861$2,270 inWon+$590.7511541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed No72c1,699$1,228 inWon+$470.743517.1%6 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e3e…b917backed No79c1,500$1,185 inWon+$3153100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3208…35a7backed Yes21c1,500$315 inLost-$31530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked No76c1,132$866 inWon+$266.25721.1%12 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c960.18$219 inLost-$219.4599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes17c939.09$162 inLost-$162.115332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes21c695.31$143 inLost-$143.1412531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes23c627.24$144 inLost-$144.2717225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes14c499.76$71 inLost-$71.231822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes3c495$17 inLost-$16.651244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes9c237$21 inLost-$20.7230319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No75c200$150 inWon+$505655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No79c165.98$131 inWon+$34.875834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No80c164.28$131 inWon+$32.867041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes15c110$16 inLost-$16.437740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d1…9fabbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost-$2250%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x322e…9f5fbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40df…a3fbbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes18c60.74$11 inLost-$10.9336527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No78c55$43 inWon+$12.17441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a6…31b9backed No80c55$44 inWon+$112958.6%17 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No72c52.22$38 inWon+$14.629142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48b7…63f1backed Yes30c50$15 inLost-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+83.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.