Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53779b931539bc7482f758654e0e0c2a4f1cd422e9abfa123e9bf013ef13a477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Under | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 77c | 2,494$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.58 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 78c | 2,310$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.2 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 1,312$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.73 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 1,130$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 76c | 526.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 77c | 325.38$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 78c | 300.5$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…c074backed Over | 78c | 207.4$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 77c | 203$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…3642backed Over | 78c | 201.24$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 78c | 186.64$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…753cbacked Over | 78c | 131.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 78c | 130.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…f258backed Over | 78c | 130.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9b…555cbacked Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9e97backed Over | 77c | 56.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 78c | 28.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 78c | 21.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 76c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.