Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ef96e132e245d898cf5ac7c8413503bfe7efc7c8a7aebb90a8636663d1f942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Under | 70c | 2,144$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.97 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 57c | 1,109$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.3 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 950.45$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 862.01$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 29c | 860$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.6 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 26c | 652.45$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 70c | 519.49$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.34 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 30c | 442.27$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.59 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 34c | 440$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 31c | 119.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…5307backed Over | 79c | 111$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 99.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 41c | 75.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…48e4backed Over | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Under | 53c | 38.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 69c | 27.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 65c | 27.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 66c | 24.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 75c | 22.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 70c | 22.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 61c | 18.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.