Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf700a1d4a04c9c6f72404fc1573c6dd224302a0eaedf096dc440e13f52657c65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 35,717$4,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,939.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 53c | 12,491$6,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,870.86 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 37c | 7,916$2,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909.31 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 53c | 5,597$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 47c | 5,517$2,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,593.18 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Over | 74c | 3,457$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…03acbacked Over | 76c | 2,437$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.61 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 2,420$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.86 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 2,300$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.38 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 30c | 1,056$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.71 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 48c | 917.98$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.63 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 35c | 815.32$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.25 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 47c | 550.02$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.51 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Over | 53c | 415.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.09 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 53c | 398.21$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.16 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 47c | 260$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 167$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 132.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…3f67backed Under | 19c | 69.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd716…bad1backed Over | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 47c | 51.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…1483backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -69%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Under | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d22…95b7backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 54c | 37.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 47c | 32.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 47c | 26.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e2…62febacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 24.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.