TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,774 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1eea…00c5backed No69c1,076$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.822450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c876.51$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.278,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc017…9f26backed Yes37c764.67$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…b88fbacked Yes3c671.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42170%0 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes23c606.49$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2335233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c315.09$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c312$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c284.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes36c270.17$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c249.91$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.072,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes20c215.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4349547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked Yes13c212.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6519059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No76c206.69$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c206.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.442,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes15c193.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4314144%62 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No71c187.76$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.86070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes31c184.27$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.531,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes35c179.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.675,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes18c174.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.043,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes7c170.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes11c165.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5620835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes17c164.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4518038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c155.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.87,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes36c143.25$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes21c136.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6318041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No74c124.57$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.551,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes53c124.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.131,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes19c122.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1159121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c122.14$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.084,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No67c119.38$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.454,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes25c113.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c108.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes18c107.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c95.19$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.262,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes13c92.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes20c91.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2620631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef1…baacbacked Yes13c88.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1e07backed Yes21c86.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.237544%33 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No78c79.65$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6597570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes19c74.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.195635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes28c71.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.863,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No38c67.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6816548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No75c64.77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1657038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed No76c64.39$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.63063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.586173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c62.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.762,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes27c62.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6454154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes19c57.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9436123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed Yes49c57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8545162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c49.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No69c49.75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.431,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes22c45.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.111644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0175…4264backed No68c44.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.229753.6%52 W · 45 L-12.2wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4087…9678backed No68c44.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.229553.7%51 W · 44 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf9c0…d247backed No73c38.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes58c34.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2082268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c32.35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.479,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f8e…74bfbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.954,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05bf…5fa8backed No79c29.76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.26850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No80c27.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5521676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fcc…788cbacked No70c26.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.863171%22 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No78c24.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0653547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c21.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.632,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes50c21.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.625449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae71…9750backed No69c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cf…4193backed No70c20.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No69c19.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1134250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No78c19.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3948672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16c…57b4backed No76c19.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48a0…f156backed No78c19.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.319762.9%61 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No79c18.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.812564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked No79c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.871,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No80c17.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5622675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01f2…c3debacked No77c17.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9912538.4%48 W · 77 L-18.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No69c17.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.361,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No66c16.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No69c16.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1254867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.731050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf075…3f43backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1510866.7%72 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.