Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x537903fc782c37edc58d90245e9ba8ec28e195f3cb34e8a8429dd7c0abc906cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 69c | 1,076$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.8 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 876.51$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…9f26backed Yes | 37c | 764.67$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…b88fbacked Yes | 3c | 671.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 23c | 606.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 315.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 284.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 36c | 270.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 249.91$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 20c | 215.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 13c | 212.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 206.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 206.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 15c | 193.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 71c | 187.76$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 184.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 179.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 174.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 7c | 170.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 11c | 165.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 17c | 164.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 155.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 143.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 21c | 136.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 124.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 53c | 124.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 122.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 122.14$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 119.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 113.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 108.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 18c | 107.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 95.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 20c | 91.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef1…baacbacked Yes | 13c | 88.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 21c | 86.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 79.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 19c | 74.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 38c | 67.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 64.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 76c | 64.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 62.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 27c | 62.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 19c | 57.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 49.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 49.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 22c | 45.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 68c | 44.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 68c | 44.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…d247backed No | 73c | 38.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 32.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…74bfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…5fa8backed No | 79c | 29.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 80c | 27.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 70c | 26.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 21.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 50c | 21.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…4193backed No | 70c | 20.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 19.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57b4backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 78c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 79c | 18.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 80c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 77c | 17.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 17.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 66c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 16.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.