Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23037946e1968047cfb4d1e4038c7686e7a1f14fb9a14c54e94ecf8aead76892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ca…3266backed Yes | 5c | 12,145$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…fab3backed Yes | 6c | 1,673$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b3…13edbacked Yes | 6c | 1,276$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 585.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 19c | 440.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 49c | 410$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.19 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 18c | 403.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 312$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 302.91$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 6c | 249.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 246.66$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 12c | 212.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 12c | 193.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 182.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 181.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 174.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 164.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 7c | 163.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 139.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 119.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 119.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 111.56$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 15c | 111.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 12c | 110.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 36c | 103.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 11c | 103.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 15c | 97.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 17c | 76.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 67c | 75.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 60.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 53.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 51.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 68c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 47.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 44.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 65c | 43.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 35c | 40.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 35.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 34.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 65c | 29.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…ddfebacked No | 67c | 29.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ee…665ebacked Yes | 36c | 28.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 27.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…4a8bbacked No | 54c | 25.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 51c | 25.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 63c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 75c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.