TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,294
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,294 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6297…517ebacked Yes1c1,281$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.091,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes33c759.95$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.658,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc80…56a7backed Yes2c667.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6716412.2%20 W · 144 L-0.5wins0.00per pick12cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes38c611.28$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.6135233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc017…9f26backed Yes48c590.73$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.451233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfece…ef64backed Yes3c452.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c311.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3281165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No72c294.56$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7514372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c265.37$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c236.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.162,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No66c230$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.531170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c223.92$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.742,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed Yes34c205.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8622450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No63c199.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7419753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes32c197.62$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6514144%62 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes23c181.38$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.095,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes33c179.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.631,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes7c164.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2918038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c152.47$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.237,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No67c148.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.991,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes35c145.06$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No79c138.15$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5572952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes32c129.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2118041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No62c120.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.021,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes42c111.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c104.31$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.939,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c97.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.433,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8e…74bfbacked Yes37c93.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes31c89.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1812638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1e07backed Yes35c87.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.077544%33 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes22c80.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5540741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes37c73.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3215534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f46…06f0backed Yes40c73.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.764030%12 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No56c73.42$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3519059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes37c72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.492,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b4…834ebacked No72c67.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes34c61.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.911,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No53c60.66$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3716548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No64c57.34$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.522,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No57c52.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6412374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No57c52.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6412670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c4e…f93abacked Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36e1…eb43backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2516552.1%86 W · 79 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No69c49.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4472837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No66c47.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.251,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c46.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d6…036bbacked Yes40c45.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes31c45.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8911644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70a…0883backed No66c45.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.347866.7%52 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed No43c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.511950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No68c43.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0112962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ab…e21cbacked No79c43.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa456…6d13backed Yes35c40.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes30c40.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…b2b8backed No65c39.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1415454.5%84 W · 70 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes27c38.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4835137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c38.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4683360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc457…1675backed No59c37.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.485850%29 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe9b…156cbacked No66c36.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.137050%35 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes38c35.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.552533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No53c35.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.619772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6924…b011backed Yes36c33.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.982128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked No80c31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.231062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No68c30.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5599571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.34,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No58c28.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.053850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…ed2abacked Yes40c28.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.283250%16 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No68c27.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9334250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No66c27.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.551,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No74c27.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3233373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7953547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No62c26.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9351762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed No59c24.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.156716.4%11 W · 56 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x407e…5bf0backed No67c22.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.349361.3%57 W · 36 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes47c22.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.422,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f2…c3debacked No64c19.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0812538.4%48 W · 77 L-18.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No61c18.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3380560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c18.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.82,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a09…263dbacked No68c17.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.767057.1%40 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed No60c17.18$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.