Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539c2a4d9fb65909acb165c0c244c38cae78ead492c3806ad2ebb416788c60ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 65c | 3,894$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.04 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 2c | 1,144$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 78c | 1,027$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.95 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 35c | 899.99$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.71 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf276…0ddebacked Yes | 58c | 599.98$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed No | 34c | 599.96$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.69 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 32c | 599.95$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.22 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 383.51$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked No | 35c | 358.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 48c | 344.02$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.54 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed Yes | 67c | 310.9$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed Yes | 65c | 229$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…e63ebacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 36c | 182.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 69c | 179.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 146.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 38c | 129.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 38c | 128.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 63c | 118.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…6876backed Yes | 69c | 114.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed No | 37c | 114.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 64c | 104.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 69c | 101.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 30c | 97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed Yes | 70c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 65c | 71.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 67c | 59.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 68c | 56.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 46c | 50.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…3740backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…fba2backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…492cbacked Yes | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 50c | 49.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…8ac4backed Yes | 65c | 46.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 68c | 37.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 34c | 36.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d03…85bfbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…8cc1backed Yes | 66c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…8938backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 63c | 23.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 61c | 23.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…497cbacked Yes | 65c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…5c4cbacked Yes | 65c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…41debacked Yes | 65c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…d78bbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 40°F or below on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or higher on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on November 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.