MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53e4f10ab8addf863e829a42437be5e1a70585caad7f01337caff2ca0c09d038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 56c | 20,212$11,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,949.55 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 10,925$4,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,661.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 44c | 10,353$4,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,555.28 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 58c | 5,818$3,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.44 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 1,578$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 1,487$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 1,402$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.07 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,400$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 44c | 1,312$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.09 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 1,308$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.68 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 42c | 1,180$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.04 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…c069backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…82aabacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over | 52c | 963.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 43c | 940.24$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.3 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 57c | 880.49$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.61 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 624.99$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 57c | 620.94$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.99 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 57c | 513.67$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.88 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 77c | 481.56$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 40c | 398$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 285.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 57c | 256.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 30c | 242.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 42c | 195.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 57c | 169.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 66c | 143.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 49c | 125$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 59c | 119.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 57c | 113.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 104$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Over | 38c | 101.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 57c | 97.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 83.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 59c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 57c | 40.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under | 57c | 39.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 57c | 30.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…9b93backed Under | 57c | 29.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Under | 54c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 26.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…1f18backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…a39ebacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…41f8backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe36…5ceabacked Under | 57c | 25.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Under | 52c | 23.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 57c | 22.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Under | 57c | 22.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…14b1backed Under | 57c | 21.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 57c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 66c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.