MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb806532cf16dbf7a075ac8d64509c78c21b5598a9dca1259f41854de2105e8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 73c | 973.42$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.89 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 27c | 890.07$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 73c | 761$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.47 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 710.25$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 58c | 599.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 42c | 548$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.02 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…3c41backed Over | 75c | 530.91$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 25c | 499.1$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 27c | 307.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 25c | 250$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 73c | 214.73$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 191.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.53 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 72c | 115.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 97.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 28c | 37.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 33.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 40c | 25.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 52c | 22.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 61c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 73c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.