Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54066b50d1c041ed2dfc49dc99d451664f3bdf935a2b56cb59c9a024cab979a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 6c | 7,121$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 1,050$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,039$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.37 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 636.66$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 508.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.84 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 38c | 379.75$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.51 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 327.62$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 27c | 322.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.43 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 39c | 283.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 271.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 257.39$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 25c | 243.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 66c | 214.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 205.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 203$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 72c | 194.74$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 14c | 176$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.74 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 46c | 173.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 7c | 173.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.53 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 162.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 158.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 64c | 139.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 15c | 137$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 66c | 116$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 99.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 46c | 95.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 39c | 95.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 61c | 78.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 30c | 61.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 53.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…c97fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 49.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 71c | 48.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 33c | 40.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 68c | 40.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 51c | 38.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 33c | 36.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 47c | 33.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 41c | 32.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 69c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 53c | 23.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 73c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 13.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.