Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c5ba2cb319ff712e4920ca762e3e86cb164af59189fbae93210477a5106321f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,958$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,183$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 26c | 530.27$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.33 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 478$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 23c | 247.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 50c | 201.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 12c | 200.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 153.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Yes | 21c | 149.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 133.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 130.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 130.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 129.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 11c | 123.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 103.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 16c | 98.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 18c | 95.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 88.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 22c | 77.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 77.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed Yes | 23c | 70.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 70.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 16c | 66.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82d5…116dbacked Yes | 24c | 62.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 59.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 53.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 42c | 44.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 74c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 78c | 12.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 78c | 12.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.