Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x772e4e9582d40cf45b0577ab364ac3d0148939d292668643b4181b11272643f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,942$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 708.03$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.7 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 49c | 668.94$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.74 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 49c | 613.96$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.95 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 26c | 468.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.4 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 58c | 410.87$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.78 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 4c | 404.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 62c | 389$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.83 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 345.29$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 342.85$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 299.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 290.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 275.42$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 80c | 267.62$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 267.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 259.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 36c | 248.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 242.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 206.71$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 203$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 51c | 201.01$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 22c | 195.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 189$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 180$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 54c | 154.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 66c | 150.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 141.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 22c | 140.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 36c | 129.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 129.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 129.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 67c | 120.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 33c | 108.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 48c | 106.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 97.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…8f03backed No | 27c | 94.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 36c | 88.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 28c | 82.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 61c | 81.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 80.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 46c | 78.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 77.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 67c | 74.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed No | 56c | 72.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 70.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 30c | 68.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 67c | 67.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 64.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 25c | 64.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 63.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed No | 55c | 63.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 58.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 56.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 23c | 55.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 80c | 54.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 58c | 52.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 52c | 51.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 24c | 47.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 47.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 54c | 44.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 31c | 42.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 47c | 40.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 69c | 38.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 30c | 38.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 36.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 36.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…afb4backed No | 47c | 33.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…6cc9backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5156…84c1backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 31.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 29.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 67c | 29.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 27.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…3ae7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…1b86backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…feb5backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 77c | 16.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.