Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53a8bfe15f6062051d83142e3f04d18b8b404ba4d4e4c344c086fe8c848214b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,698$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.89 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 931.71$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 66c | 541.74$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.62 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 479.36$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 441.36$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.59 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked Yes | 68c | 367.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 350.2$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 50c | 254.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.18 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 59c | 250.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.47 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 32c | 247.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 244.05$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 43c | 214.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.17 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 195.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 186.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 175$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 165$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 54c | 154.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 65c | 154.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed Yes | 55c | 151.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 47c | 151.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Yes | 41c | 149.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 148.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 145.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 144.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed Yes | 59c | 138.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 137.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 59c | 135.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 75c | 133.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 68c | 133$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 124.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 119.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 46c | 116.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 105.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 41c | 98.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 40c | 94.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…e027backed Yes | 27c | 93.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 81.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 64c | 80.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 26c | 79.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 78.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 58c | 77.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 77.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 60c | 75.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…06fdbacked No | 67c | 72.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 71.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 35c | 71.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…99a5backed Yes | 67c | 64.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 59.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 58.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 50.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 32c | 48.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 48.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 38c | 47.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 48c | 46.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 46.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 77c | 45.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…6cc9backed Yes | 61c | 45.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 58c | 43.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 59c | 42.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 41.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 35c | 41.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 70c | 38.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 72c | 38.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 37.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 37.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 57c | 37.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed No | 76c | 35.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 35.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 77c | 35.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ab…1a26backed Yes | 56c | 34.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 34.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 52c | 34.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed No | 72c | 32.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 31.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 39c | 31.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a5…34d1backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 51c | 29.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.