South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5438c021ce70bfdfccb650f4ed7da95e1c8241df37095343941b68c0dec383bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 19c | 5,766$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.55 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 4,092$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.29 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,763$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.12 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 64c | 1,957$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.45 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked No | 64c | 1,907$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.68 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 20c | 1,493$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.38 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8a…f0b8backed Yes | 36c | 1,424$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.49 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 36c | 1,333$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.88 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 36c | 1,331$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 36c | 1,023$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.24 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 38c | 764.49$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.8 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed No | 70c | 737.74$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.69 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Yes | 18c | 559.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 64c | 542.8$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.44 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…14edbacked Yes | 36c | 534.22$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 11c | 463.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 79c | 461.54$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 36c | 454.44$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 19c | 411.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Yes | 25c | 391.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed No | 65c | 325.31$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 31c | 312.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 32c | 295.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 69c | 292.46$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Yes | 15c | 222.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 37c | 192.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 64c | 180.59$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 64c | 166.67$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Yes | 37c | 143.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 17c | 137.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 36c | 117$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 113.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 100.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 64c | 98.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 69c | 90.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 65c | 81.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…0c6ebacked Yes | 26c | 69.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…95f8backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…7720backed Yes | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…0be0backed Yes | 36c | 53.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3d…943fbacked No | 65c | 52.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 35c | 52.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5776…5266backed Yes | 36c | 50.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 36c | 45.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 108 | 26.9%29 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked No | 64c | 44.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 77c | 39.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…c264backed Yes | 32c | 38.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 65c | 37.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed No | 65c | 31.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae74…e429backed No | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 65c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 65c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 65c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 65c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 78c | 26.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed No | 65c | 24.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed No | 65c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 68c | 18.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked No | 65c | 18.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 64c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked No | 65c | 15.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-04-20?this page
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.