WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5454b340ec7ff7ea57685b99fd4a0c2bf92c0808413f11aa41ec56a1e797d5a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 1,306$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.4 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,263$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.01 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.99 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 52c | 934.17$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.56 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Over | 49c | 877.88$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 48c | 468.29$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.78 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 49c | 367.22$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.94 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 224$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…1c26backed Under | 53c | 214$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Under | 51c | 197.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Over | 47c | 135$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 128.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Over | 47c | 124.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…6047backed Under | 59c | 85.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 47c | 80.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 18c | 74.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 46c | 73.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 58.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 51c | 58.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…ad0fbacked Over | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 49.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…3106backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 48c | 37.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 49c | 31.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…5310backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.