WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaf28bde0fa1d50c56d80c081cdce45d3d8c9668e3d4e0a330c0d3a6ebfe62ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Under | 54c | 17,510$9,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,982.81 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 45c | 9,740$4,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,383.12 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 52c | 2,259$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.17 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 51c | 1,962$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.58 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 1,797$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.81 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,678$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.02 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 1,567$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.17 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 1c | 1,252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 1,115$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.28 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 1,004$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…1c58backed Over | 55c | 912.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 757.65$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.52 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 727.08$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.08 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 43c | 702.52$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.76 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Over | 30c | 655.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 52c | 537.83$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.67 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 501.74$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.92 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 49c | 440$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 51c | 339.97$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 3c | 303.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…cd31backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d6…e7acbacked Over | 50c | 291.1$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 52c | 280.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Under | 48c | 267.62$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 43c | 251.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Over | 16c | 249.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…1104backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 192.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 47c | 175.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 52c | 163.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 45c | 157.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 61c | 150.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 147.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 139.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…4b3cbacked Under | 57c | 131$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Over | 46c | 129.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 111.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Over | 17c | 106.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…eb8ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 77c | 85.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed Under | 59c | 84.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 18c | 84.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 64.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 50c | 61.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 46c | 52.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Over | 23c | 46.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 48c | 46.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed Under | 48c | 34.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Under | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 80c | 29.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Over | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Over | 52c | 27.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 50c | 20.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.