WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e43ef333e54eb813ea180777d94612930828923348990c62d67412308577eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Las Vegas Aces, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 21,732$11,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,442.8 | 369 | 54.2%200 W · 169 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 10,030$5,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,365.79 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked PortlandFire | 47c | 6,665$3,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,532.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,649.99 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked PortlandFire | 47c | 4,257$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,256.2 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PortlandFire | 48c | 2,774$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.29 | 913 | 49.3%450 W · 463 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire | 46c | 2,467$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.06 | 281 | 48.8%137 W · 144 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…45cebacked PortlandFire | 45c | 2,281$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.74 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed PortlandFire | 46c | 2,139$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.19 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed PortlandFire | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.06 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed PortlandFire | 50c | 1,472$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.04 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed PortlandFire | 49c | 1,400$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 46c | 1,327$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.63 | 1,635 | 50.2%820 W · 815 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 1,222$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.51 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 1,165$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.69 | 1,803 | 51.8%934 W · 869 L | +56.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed PortlandFire | 50c | 1,068$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534 | 803 | 48.7%391 W · 412 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.72 | 944 | 48.3%456 W · 488 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 881.14$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.19 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked PortlandFire | 46c | 840.72$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.99 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…d2f5backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 691.66$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…076cbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 662.19$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789f…3e7dbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed PortlandFire | 47c | 500.4$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.68 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed PortlandFire | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed PortlandFire | 50c | 294.43$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.75 | 301 | 54.2%163 W · 138 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 48c | 239.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…1c26backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 209.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed PortlandFire | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed PortlandFire | 33c | 167$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 146.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 871 | 48.2%420 W · 451 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…eb8ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked PortlandFire | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…f09fbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 92.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Las Vegas Aces | 57c | 84.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed PortlandFire | 43c | 68.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 774 | 42.5%329 W · 445 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked PortlandFire | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d52…4dafbacked Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed PortlandFire | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…58a8backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked PortlandFire | 48c | 56.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked PortlandFire | 47c | 47.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed PortlandFire | 48c | 38.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed PortlandFire | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed PortlandFire | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed PortlandFire | 48c | 26.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed PortlandFire | 50c | 26.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 632 | 46.8%296 W · 336 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.