WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47b67d784f95a9442b0ae672eae5a51728e07ac8c0feca530ff2228189674831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Las Vegas Aces, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd86e…45cebacked PortlandFire | 54c | 8,180$4,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,762.79 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 4,817$2,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.14 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire | 55c | 3,026$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.26 | 279 | 49.1%137 W · 142 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 2,955$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.29 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed PortlandFire | 59c | 2,152$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.65 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 1,251$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.41 | 327 | 49.5%162 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 1,125$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.74 | 420 | 46.7%196 W · 224 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 932 | 48.8%455 W · 477 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 534$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Las Vegas Aces | 65c | 499.97$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.98 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Las Vegas Aces | 40c | 496$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 314 | 43%135 W · 179 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e0…2e6bbacked PortlandFire | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 379.84$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 42c | 294.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Las Vegas Aces | 39c | 240.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.74 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 564 | 55.1%311 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…58eebacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 202.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 177.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Las Vegas Aces | 61c | 160.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…d359backed PortlandFire | 47c | 130.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 116$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked PortlandFire | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed PortlandFire | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Las Vegas Aces | 53c | 94.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed PortlandFire | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed PortlandFire | 34c | 71.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed PortlandFire | 35c | 56.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 37c | 52.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 321 | 48.6%156 W · 165 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Las Vegas Aces | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Las Vegas Aces | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 370 | 54.1%200 W · 170 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Las Vegas Aces | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8b…cc69backed PortlandFire | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed PortlandFire | 56c | 48.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Las Vegas Aces | 43c | 47.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 352 | 54.3%191 W · 161 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked PortlandFire | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 39.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Las Vegas Aces | 66c | 32.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 515 | 52.6%271 W · 244 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed PortlandFire | 55c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Las Vegas Aces | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Las Vegas Aces | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 242 | 55.4%134 W · 108 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Las Vegas Aces | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed PortlandFire | 56c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Las Vegas Aces | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…43ffbacked PortlandFire | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 72c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.