WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fdc28a784a26bbd1fd519a7db11764ae130979a72d75b8d73da0690641d7678
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Las Vegas Aces, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire | 51c | 7,197$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,526.43 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 6,245$3,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,003.09 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked PortlandFire | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.94 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked PortlandFire | 50c | 3,612$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.76 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 3,280$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.95 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed PortlandFire | 50c | 3,278$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.88 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 2,026$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.53 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 1,127$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.38 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…3a5cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 1,102$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.06 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 875.15$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.32 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5547…3a41backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 765.06$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.18 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed PortlandFire | 54c | 574.78$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 442.85$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 349.63$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.84 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…8af3backed PortlandFire | 53c | 280$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 247.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 222.38$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked PortlandFire | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 200.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…31e6backed Las Vegas Aces | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 133$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 107.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…45cebacked PortlandFire | 50c | 78.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Las Vegas Aces | 74c | 75.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 74.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 52.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 49.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed PortlandFire | 52c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked PortlandFire | 48c | 34.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 34.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 33.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 29.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 29.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 27.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Las Vegas Aces | 74c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Las Vegas Aces | 72c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5)this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFireLas Vegas Aces won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5Under won
- Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.