Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e7b836267d83c8a7bda766b64b30ac215c3359b37905daf62011b01e0169a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina Tar Heelsof Louisville Cardinals, North Carolina Tar Heels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 9,660$4,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.28 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 6,500$3,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,184.97 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 4,166$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147.43 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 3,866$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.28 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 1,983$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.4 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 1,697$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.16 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 1,485$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.55 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 1,214$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 1,001$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.58 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 802.92$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.49 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 781.64$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.14 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 728.27$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.85 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 693.88$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 51c | 680.27$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 485.91$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.81 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 388.25$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 181.1$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 148.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 145.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 109.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 104.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 49c | 100.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…6ab9backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 82.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606a…3fabbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 37.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 27.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 25.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed North Carolina Tar Heels | 48c | 21.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked North Carolina Tar Heels | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-3.5)this page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina Tar Heels won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 162.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels: O/U 163.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-2.5)North Carolina Tar Heels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.