Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x550fcba514e73c90ec6c53b628bc2959e53b76889c80cc83c420bee834ecce4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 53c | 377.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 262.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 75c | 248.47$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 50c | 203$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 193.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 50c | 193.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 45c | 169$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 140.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 122.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 121.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 109.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 100.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 97.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 54c | 96.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 47c | 75.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 28c | 74.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 51c | 66.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 58c | 65.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 65.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 58.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 54c | 55.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 51.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 46c | 50.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 49.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 49.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 58c | 46.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 51c | 44.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 53c | 44.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 42.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 48c | 38.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 37.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5450…3e57backed Yes | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 49c | 36.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 44c | 36.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 33.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 31.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…4140backed No | 74c | 31.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 31.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 43c | 30.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 46c | 30.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 45c | 30.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 44c | 25.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 45c | 25.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 58c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 24.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 21.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b544backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.