NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Wizards
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x554276015c321f464c5ca7765649928a64d65d6808afc80fdf189748e9a5393c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x506b…cc27backed Wizards | 1c | 31,550$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Wizards | 11c | 10,694$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.31 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Wizards | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Wizards | 9c | 9,901$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Wizards | 9c | 8,638$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.84 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Wizards | 10c | 3,725$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Wizards | 10c | 3,282$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.22 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Wizards | 13c | 2,997$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9211backed Wizards | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Wizards | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa863…6faabacked Wizards | 12c | 1,385$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Wizards | 11c | 1,099$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…07ffbacked Wizards | 12c | 1,098$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…e6edbacked Wizards | 8c | 1,022$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…6e4fbacked Wizards | 12c | 1,015$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Wizards | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wizards | 10c | 647.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…ef54backed Wizards | 12c | 598.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Wizards | 10c | 499.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…2a0cbacked Wizards | 12c | 488$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f2…702cbacked Wizards | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…28fabacked Wizards | 11c | 410.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 224 | 30.8%69 W · 155 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…2032backed Wizards | 13c | 339.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367c…f5f5backed Wizards | 12c | 225.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Wizards | 11c | 200.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Wizards | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dc…0b20backed Wizards | 11c | 199.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Wizards | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Wizards | 15c | 186.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Wizards | 13c | 154.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Wizards | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…edfbbacked Wizards | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…1e4ebacked Wizards | 22c | 135.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Wizards | 12c | 130.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Wizards | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Wizards | 17c | 114.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfe…bc07backed Wizards | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Wizards | 22c | 100.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Wizards | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0227…53b4backed Wizards | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…3fc8backed Wizards | 22c | 96.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Wizards | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…23d2backed Wizards | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.