Tennis · resolved market
Tyler: Masamichi Imamura vs Colton Smith
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5562cc59457558b63f9eb4f9eec25ebad4bd312ee25d3afe6fe045862399f89c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Masamichi Imamuraof Masamichi Imamura, Colton Smith
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Colton Smith | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Masamichi Imamura | 67c | 1,583$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.47 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Masamichi Imamura | 37c | 1,003$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.75 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Colton Smith | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Masamichi Imamura | 75c | 772.66$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.91 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Masamichi Imamura | 15c | 700$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Masamichi Imamura | 67c | 697.55$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.01 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Colton Smith | 58c | 674$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.23 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Masamichi Imamura | 35c | 599.72$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.8 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Colton Smith | 66c | 499.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Masamichi Imamura | 71c | 447.86$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Masamichi Imamura | 38c | 400.13$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.52 | 910 | 51%464 W · 446 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Masamichi Imamura | 26c | 380.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.19 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Colton Smith | 62c | 351$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Colton Smith | 61c | 326.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Masamichi Imamura | 68c | 249.66$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Colton Smith | 39c | 247.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Masamichi Imamura | 53c | 247.43$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.09 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Masamichi Imamura | 69c | 237.25$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Masamichi Imamura | 56c | 218$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Colton Smith | 28c | 204$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…d8c4backed Colton Smith | 19c | 193.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 139 | 28.1%39 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Colton Smith | 58c | 172.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…b692backed Colton Smith | 44c | 161.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Colton Smith | 58c | 119.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Masamichi Imamura | 15c | 116.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.85 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Masamichi Imamura | 74c | 116.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Masamichi Imamura | 34c | 105.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 478 | 57.9%277 W · 201 L | +24.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Masamichi Imamura | 34c | 105.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Colton Smith | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…8ff7backed Masamichi Imamura | 15c | 103$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 394 | 43.9%173 W · 221 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Colton Smith | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed Colton Smith | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 513 | 39.4%202 W · 311 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Colton Smith | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 360 | 53.1%191 W · 169 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Colton Smith | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Colton Smith | 56c | 91.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…6e00backed Masamichi Imamura | 14c | 87.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…337dbacked Colton Smith | 58c | 87.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Masamichi Imamura | 61c | 79.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed Masamichi Imamura | 66c | 77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 350 | 60.9%213 W · 137 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Masamichi Imamura | 58c | 73.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Colton Smith | 63c | 70.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Masamichi Imamura | 23c | 67.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Colton Smith | 36c | 64.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Colton Smith | 73c | 62.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Colton Smith | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ea32backed Colton Smith | 26c | 53.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 436 | 18.3%80 W · 356 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Colton Smith | 60c | 51.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 272 | 39%106 W · 166 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Masamichi Imamura | 70c | 51.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…9a30backed Masamichi Imamura | 31c | 48.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Colton Smith | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Colton Smith | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Colton Smith | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2534…3484backed Masamichi Imamura | 73c | 41.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Masamichi Imamura | 75c | 40.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Masamichi Imamura | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…a40cbacked Masamichi Imamura | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Masamichi Imamura | 72c | 37.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Colton Smith | 59c | 35.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4ed8backed Colton Smith | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Colton Smith | 50c | 31.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Masamichi Imamura | 67c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,671 | 53%885 W · 786 L | +44.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Masamichi Imamura | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 749 | 55.1%413 W · 336 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa231…a91ebacked Colton Smith | 60c | 29.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Masamichi Imamura | 55c | 26.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Masamichi Imamura | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 391 | 54.2%212 W · 179 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e89…9cd6backed Colton Smith | 64c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…8dadbacked Masamichi Imamura | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.