Cricket · resolved market
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Sub Regional Qualifier C: Bulgaria vs Luxembourg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a5bbd0bb2fc1517a1b9ec7d9f677a864c4998d4bde3ec802437b8bf3249bcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bulgariaof Bulgaria, Luxembourg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0646…ad17backed Luxembourg | 2c | 2,004$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 323 | 15.8%51 W · 272 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Luxembourg | 66c | 1,267$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.93 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Luxembourg | 1c | 901.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Luxembourg | 65c | 868.27$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.63 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Bulgaria | 36c | 741.34$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.22 | 310 | 50%155 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Luxembourg | 2c | 646.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fff…9b0abacked Luxembourg | 8c | 599.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Bulgaria | 36c | 399.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bulgaria | 30c | 342.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.32 | 568 | 37%210 W · 358 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Luxembourg | 48c | 244$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Bulgaria | 40c | 212.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 271 | 41.3%112 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Bulgaria | 66c | 212.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Bulgaria | 36c | 197$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 676 | 31.4%212 W · 464 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1e…102cbacked Luxembourg | 67c | 179.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…a2d2backed Luxembourg | 70c | 177.4$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…820fbacked Luxembourg | 12c | 169.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 187 | 29.4%55 W · 132 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Bulgaria | 64c | 153.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 198 | 51%101 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c82…6f49backed Luxembourg | 55c | 145.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Bulgaria | 65c | 138.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Luxembourg | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 183 | 19.7%36 W · 147 L | -24.5wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…6660backed Bulgaria | 55c | 95.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bulgaria | 39c | 82.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 420 | 44%185 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Bulgaria | 51c | 79.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | +17.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Bulgaria | 74c | 77.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9559…4781backed Bulgaria | 76c | 77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Bulgaria | 42c | 56.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Bulgaria | 76c | 43.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Bulgaria | 41c | 41.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Luxembourg | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 385 | 44.4%171 W · 214 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Bulgaria | 75c | 22.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Bulgaria | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…5388backed Bulgaria | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Bulgaria | 73c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 106 | 70.8%75 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…514bbacked Luxembourg | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Bulgaria | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bulgaria | 78c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 502 | 47.4%238 W · 264 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.