MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55b657047528ea9fb8c39240e5ae0a11b35fd85664bae94ba0357b5cada52bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 2,222$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.02 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 1,177$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.44 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 936.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.17 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 666.05$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.8 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 45c | 642.02$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 471.77$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.42 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 427.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 339.98$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 339.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 293$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 235$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 133.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…919cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 112.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 105.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 102.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 92.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 87.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 74.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed St. Louis Cardinals | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.