MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad0de91891637d7105017aa098b7a8617da9f163bc898d55038d4d4d77b0d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 45c | 8,830$3,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,973.6 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 55c | 8,302$4,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,741.59 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 2,905$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.17 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 55c | 2,858$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.88 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 47c | 2,109$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.84 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 53c | 1,945$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.11 | 1,083 | 48.1%521 W · 562 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 45c | 1,725$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.25 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 1,509$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.98 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Under | 47c | 1,165$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.55 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 53c | 1,100$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.89 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 53c | 561$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.67 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 56c | 513.14$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 506.85$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.79 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 407$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.29 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 351.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.13 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 64c | 308.14$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.57 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…bb7fbacked Over | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…ddcdbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 52c | 199.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.84 | 1,543 | 48.6%750 W · 793 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Under | 46c | 186.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Over | 54c | 186.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 48c | 185.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 48c | 185.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 48c | 185.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 1,044 | 48.9%511 W · 533 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 48c | 185.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…9c81backed Over | 56c | 152.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Under | 48c | 123.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 271 | 46.1%125 W · 146 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 48c | 105.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,305 | 50.2%655 W · 650 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 56c | 85.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 50c | 74.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Under | 15c | 69.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 44c | 59.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 59.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 54c | 53.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…62e2backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Over | 54c | 40.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…737bbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 46c | 32.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Under | 41c | 31.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Over | 54c | 30.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…ca4ebacked Over | 54c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Over | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over | 53c | 24.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08d1…28adbacked Under | 63c | 23.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Over | 54c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Over | 56c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.