Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55f799b91fdbd778ce2a9becc7eaa126d7485108bd23d8c1634c9d368b9e49c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 17c | 268.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 10c | 264.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 214.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed Yes | 33c | 151.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 79c | 150.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 146.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 143.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 18c | 139.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 65c | 124.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 70c | 111.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…a01fbacked No | 69c | 104.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed No | 17c | 96.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 91.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed Yes | 19c | 89.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 25c | 87.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed Yes | 18c | 75.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 73.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 19c | 69.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 59.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 23c | 56.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 50.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 20c | 49.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 44.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 40.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 33c | 36.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 50c | 33.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 31.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 75c | 24.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 76c | 13.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.