MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5615951512b913ff4bcdf9a8f1dbaf386e9f0739c502e591c97a958991d78dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 9,733$5,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,119.04 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 7,747$3,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,803.39 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 5,363$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.23 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 3,111$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 238 | 54.6%130 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 53c | 242.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…2e1dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 197.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 196$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 176.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 159.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 114.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 104$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 92.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 76.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 18.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.