MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3daa099a7e35414ad1d4548fe849291e09a5d5bf06cf29ed4d408d434b4b3a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 11,507$5,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,772.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 10,450$5,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,065.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Under | 58c | 8,000$4,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,640 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 5,023$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,913.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 2,581$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.74 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 25c | 950.58$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 42c | 943.39$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.16 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 69c | 641.24$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.27 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 53c | 462.82$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.54 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 62c | 422.08$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.39 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…1c4abacked Under | 38c | 413.95$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 236$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 45c | 216.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 42c | 211.26$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Under | 67c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 182 | 43.4%79 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 40c | 171.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 37c | 159.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 52c | 153.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 42c | 120.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 45c | 113.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 45c | 109.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 23c | 98.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 24c | 96.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 24c | 94.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Over | 24c | 94.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 24c | 94.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 86.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 36c | 83.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 68.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…3535backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 56c | 57.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 62c | 43.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Over | 54c | 42.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 242 | 52.9%128 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Over | 66c | 39.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 41c | 33.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 44c | 27.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 27.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 25.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Over | 66c | 25.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…918fbacked Over | 65c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 80c | 14.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.