MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4310e3e2d20cec1b97b4bbc811772f6a12e89f2082da5105f5104962009d660a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994b…c047backed Under | 58c | 13,200$7,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,684.55 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 49c | 12,500$6,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,375 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 51c | 12,482$6,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,365.91 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 8,515$3,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,918.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 52c | 6,707$3,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,487.86 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 4,444$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 4,340$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,238.04 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 51c | 4,255$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.94 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 3,566$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Over | 27c | 3,117$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 20c | 2,799$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.97 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 27c | 2,065$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 1,288$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.75 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 49c | 1,193$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.37 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 835$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 649.01$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 11c | 600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 505$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.6 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 23c | 449.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 45c | 437$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.44 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 435.4$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 420$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 385.74$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.87 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 50c | 383.8$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 332.7$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.68 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 253.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 40c | 234.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.26 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96c…87e5backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed Over | 36c | 175$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.37 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 15c | 170.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 38c | 137.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Over | 49c | 101.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 100.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 60c | 90.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 48c | 89.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 89.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 42c | 85.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 59c | 83.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 79.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 48c | 65.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Under | 52c | 60.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 33c | 47.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 44.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 40c | 38.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 37.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 51c | 37.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 35.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Over | 59c | 31.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Under | 72c | 30.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 57c | 29.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 49c | 25.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Over | 50c | 20.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 66c | 18.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.