MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc758b4e4e4a64aeca6a2b2a144732e1d0b5ea1359621b0173d4aecb852ebc18a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 9,335$5,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,265.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 6,896$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,955.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 3,876$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Under | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 602.28$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 28c | 299$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 67c | 276$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 71c | 222.34$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 68c | 177.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 28c | 144.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 66c | 90.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 37c | 78.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 75.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 74c | 71.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 49.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 50c | 37.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 48c | 33.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 30.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 53c | 25.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 70c | 24.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 65c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 75c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…fb09backed Over | 79c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c11…05c5backed Over | 79c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.