TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c498.01$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed No69c399.83$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.8814236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes25c381.22$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.541,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes47c315.81$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8367158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes27c289.42$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.812,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No77c281.61$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3437056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c258.95$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.539,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa110…9b09backed Yes21c240.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No72c215.79$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3119057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes25c198.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No78c192.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c188.53$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.285,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c165.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.077,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eaa…3561backed Yes23c157$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7910636.8%39 W · 67 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c146.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.215,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadaa…875abacked Yes31c144.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7713134.4%45 W · 86 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes28c130.84$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4426344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c116.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.64,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes22c112.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.892,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes33c111$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6318337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No75c108.84$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.841,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c108.4$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.145,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No64c101.24$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7676755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes29c100.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5425935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1972837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.751,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No68c95.65$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.755,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c8…d97cbacked Yes22c93.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-65%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes14c92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.882,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No65c89.81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0625560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes30c88.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1244536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f26…abbabacked Yes25c83.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8711331.9%36 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No76c82.76$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5127376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No66c82.63$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.413,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c81.7$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c80.51$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.622,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes33c75.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No71c74.49$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2965965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No78c74.33$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.331,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2451…09fabacked Yes22c73.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1622125.3%56 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes21c73.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No74c72.97$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No63c68.43$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3213755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c67.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No65c66.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c62.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c62.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.112,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No75c62$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2642160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2128649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked No78c57.13$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7925946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4089…e7b2backed Yes23c55.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.931216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-63.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked Yes29c50.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0214954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes40c50.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.111,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No62c50.27$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.141,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes32c49.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.093,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes25c48.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.223327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No73c48.74$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0980957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.24,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes31c44.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e3…6befbacked Yes36c41.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No59c41.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8419052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.984,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2e…498dbacked Yes36c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.551936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No63c37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.831,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes35c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9531454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed No71c35.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.054344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.474,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No55c30.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.428,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.885,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No54c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No75c26.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.662,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No62c26.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.932,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x587c…603fbacked No79c25.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.355671.4%40 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed No77c25.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.887047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No77c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.521,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No61c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.882,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa921…f0eabacked No73c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.219362.4%58 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No77c20.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No74c20.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2244465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2298…9f33backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.335168.4%240 W · 111 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.71,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.653353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No74c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1822350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No76c19.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.721,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f1…a523backed No79c19.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.012277.3%17 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No71c19.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5662770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No68c18.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1282562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No74c18.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9218878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb701…8c1bbacked No75c15.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9712070.8%85 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No80c15.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1571464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5068…1ffabacked No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.95457.4%31 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.382,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26cf…c000backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.57955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.